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For me the core and center for every retention-centered business is CLV/LTV

You tell me - but in my humble opinion retentions your super-over-goal..

if you get just this one right, but f**ck up acquisition and referral you'll still be fine.

Simple but effective -
1. Calculate average CLV
2. Calculate statistical remaining CLV per user
2a. Your model needs to attribute for social impact / "referral strength" or something alike
3. Build simple model to estimate risk on each user
3. risk * remaining clv gives your priority

Decide every day - what should I work on? remove the highest risk..

Great points. I agree retention is the most important. Without good retention, the other metrics don't matter. I think there's also a lot of opportunity for improving Activation. WIP is really a habit-driven product and if people don't get into the habit of using it early, they tend to churn quickly.

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